Sports betting is a world that offers up strong profit potential to players, as by making the right moves at the right time you can find yourself banking some fairly hefty change. But, if you think that all you need to do is find a bookmaker and start betting to find success, you are sorely mistaken. In order to find long-term sports betting success you need to think ahead and one way to do that is through match analysis. In this guide we will look at the art of match analysis and how to do it affectively.
Facts over gut feeling
Before looking at how to undertake match analysis, we must first look at the most common type of bet, one that leads to failure more often than not. The ‘gut feeling’ bet is played by millions of punters around the world on a daily basis and is generally how the average player works when betting online. The feeling of having a hunch is generally pretty strong, so much so that many will even make their pick before seeing in the odds offered. It can’t be stressed enough, but while acting on a ‘hunch’ or ‘gut feeling’ every once in a while can be harmless; it should never be the basis of your online betting strategy. Remember, facts over belief and more importantly match analysis over a gut feeling.
The heart of any online sports betting match analysis can be found in the stakes, more importantly it can be found with statistical analysis. Statistics can reveal the true story of an upcoming sport event. The following breaks down what criteria you should analyse before putting down any money for a match bet.
If you look through history you’ll see plenty of situations where an underdog has beaten a favourite because the favourite has fielded a weaken team due to injuries. Teams within the world of football often suffer from injuries problems throughout the course of a season and this is something that some bookmakers don’t factor in to their odds calculation. It means that in such regard punters may be able to discover a rare edge over the bookmaker through their own research. If through match analyses you find that several first team players of your chosen pick are injured (or listed as ‘doubtful’), then you may want to rethink your decision and bet on the opposition.
Not all football matches were created equal and the type of game a team is playing in can largely determine the amount of effort they give. For example, a team is much more likely to give more effort in a Champions League tie than they would in a League Cup match, reason being that the prize is greater and so is the prestige. When conducting match analysis take a long look at the type of match and what tournament it is taking place in. For league games you rightfully look at the formbook and expect maximum effort from your pick, but cup-ties can often be a different story.
Here is a quick gem of knowledge for you; the Spanish La Liga is an easier league to bet on than any other European league. The reason being that the low-ranked sides seldom score upsets over the course of the season. The same can also be said of the Norwegian League, the Scottish Premier League, and at times the Italian Serie A. The top teams in such leagues tend to dominate year after year due to the lack of league competitiveness. The same cannot be said of the English Leagues, as the competition within them is truly fierce. Upsets occur regularly and can reduce a formbook to dust. When analysing an upcoming match, take a look at the league in general, is it competitive? If so, factor that into to any decisions you make.
When we say match time, we mean such in two different ways. First, there is the time when the game is taking place. When undertaking match analysis you may find that some teams struggle playing on a Sunday afternoon for example, while others may thrive. Some teams may enjoy a midweek game under the floodlights, while others may find it distracting. For example, Tottenham Hotspur notoriously struggle when playing on a Sunday afternoon following a Thursday night European game. Following on from this you need to consider the time of year. A team that likes to play fast-flowing football may struggle during the rainy winter months, while tough tackling, high-pressure teams may struggle in the summer heat. Also, a football season tends to go through stages; some teams may struggle during the opening weeks, while others may finish strong. All of these elements must be considered before you put your money down on any particular match.
The biggest match analysis tool of them all is the formbook. It has been used for decades by punters to help determine the winners and losers of major sporting events. But don’t think that it is an exclusive tool of punters; bookmakers now use it in order to determine the odds they offer. From a match analysis perspective the key is to find something in the formbook that the bookmaker may not have spotted. For example, does your chosen team not play well against teams from the north? Does your chosen team not play well midweek? These are factors that can help you get the edge over the bookmaker when it comes to sports betting.
Within the world of football, winning streaks, losing streaks, bogey teams, and hoodoos are more common that you think. While it may not make up a critical element within your match analysis, it is always worth a look. For example, Tottenham Hotspur has never beaten Chelsea away from home in the Premier League era. Now while that may not show in the odds, it will show in the psychological mindset of the players. When it comes to match analysis match history is something that does bear thinking about.
Think before you act
Think you can get by in the world of sports betting on just a wing and a prayer? Then you need to think again. The devil is always in the details, by using what has been mentioned here today you can make sure you have the edge next time you choose to bet online.